Devblog

I’ve written a few articles recently about how I think the technology, in particular computers, will be changing over the coming years with a move towards mobile devices that do everything and dedicated yet versatile multimedia devices in the home – TV recorders, games consoles etc. This does mean that since most people only want a PC for browsing the internet, the desktop PC and in a lot of cases the laptop will disappear from the home altogether as the games consoles and other cheaper TV connected devices will be able to provide the internet experience that most people want – and if someone is using the TV then their phone will do the job just fine.

So, how does this affect the key players in the industry? Up until now the home market has been dominated by the same companies as the business PC market – Microsoft provides the software with hardware being handled by Dell, HP, IBM, Sony and others. However, if everything moves in the direction I think it will the main product there – Microsoft Windows – will go from being the one element that’s included on all the devices sold to a compontent included on some devices – such as a version of Windows being used on some smart phones and obviously Microsoft’s Xbox. This is a major change for Microsoft. If the death of the desktop PC in the home and growth of mobile and gaming devices causes Microsoft to become a minor player in that area then who will become the new major players? Sony? They already produce the PS3 and are a big player in the mobile phone industry. My thinking is no. I think the industry will be dominated by two companies – Apple & Google.

To understand why you have to think about what the customer in the home environment wants – simple, elegant, stylish devices that do everything they want. Problem is “everything they want” is not what it used to be – we don’t want an operating system that allows us to connect extra hardware to perform the functions we need and a million things we don’t. We just want a device that performs functions such as texting, calls, music, camera and as such is small enough to be carried around – anything that this clever little device cannot do is either not worth having or much more likely acheivable through some provider on the internet. Does this remind you of something? iPhone maybe? Apple Inc?

But just because Apple were the first to produce a good, popular mainstream product, doesn’t mean they’ll be the dominant player for years to come. The success of the iPhone has highlighted to the manufacturers you big the market is and as such everyone wants a peice of the pie. So who’s big enough to acheive this? The one company who is innovative enough and is already playing catchup in this area – Google. They have a massive user base both in terms of it’s search engine but also Gmail and it’s other products mean that they have the capital, marketing ability and product design capabilities to make something as good as the iPhone.

Where does this leave Microsoft? Well, the Xbox product line which could become the main living room device assuming they accept the fact that the PC won’t be part of the package, they’ve got the technology to ensure that the Xbox is one of the devices in everyone’s home. That and their dominance in the business software market means they aren’t going to disappear. They just won’t be the biggest technology company in the home.

I personally hope this is the case. I won’t miss going down the pub and being greeted with “Windows has gone and done….”. And I don’t think it will take too long for this to happen – I’ve already got the iPhone and Xbox (and Wii, and Sky) and as such very rarely turn on the laptop except for work related tasks.